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Seyed Moghadas (York University, Toronto): On the reproduction number of epidemics with sub-exponential growth |
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Thursday, 24. March 2016, 10:00 - 12:00
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| Abstract. The exiting theory of epidemics is fundamentally based on the assumption of early exponential growth in the absence of any limitation to disease spread or depletion of susceptible population. However, evidence is accumulating that many infectious disease outbreaks exhibit a slower growth rate, i.e., sub-exponential. When the epidemic growth is sub-exponential, the existing theory of epidemics cannot be applied to determine the basic reproduction number, and therefore key information on the epidemic characteristics could go uncovered. In this talk, I will discuss the first step towards developing a theoretical foundation for epidemics with early sub-exponential growth, and propose a number of open problems, some are currently under investigation. |
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Location : Bolyai Intézet, I. emelet, Riesz terem, Aradi Vértanúk tere 1., Szeged |
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