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Yukihiko Nakata (The University of Tokyo): Epidemic models with waning immunity

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Thursday, 18. February 2016, 10:00 - 12:00
Abstract. Dynamical aspects of epidemic models with reinfection due to waning immunity are not fully understood. In the seminar first we would like to introduce a mathematical model formulated by a system of delay differential equations in order to give a possible explanation of periodic outbreak of mycoplasma pneumoniae observed in Japan. Stability analysis and numerical studies for periodic solutions will be presented together with biological interpretations. Subsequently we study a general SIS type epidemic model formulated by a scalar integral equation, motivated by a recent open problem regarding global stability of an equilibrium. Comparison of two models will illustrate importance of immunity period and its distribution in the periodic oscillation of infectious diseases. The talk is based on collaboration with G. Kiss, R. Omori, G. Rost and  G. Vas.
Location : Bolyai Intézet, I. emelet, Riesz terem, Aradi Vértanúk tere 1., Szeged

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