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UID:42tnph3461f7sb039oj69r7kdu@google.com
CATEGORIES:{lang hu}Differenciálegyenletek szeminárium{/lang}{lang en}Differential equations seminar{/lang}
SUMMARY:Maria Vittoria Barbarossa (Frankfurt) and Hridya Vinod Varma (Heidelberg): Fleeing lockdown and its impact on the size of epidemic outbreaks in the source and target regions – a COVID-19 lesson
LOCATION:https://us02web.zoom.us/j/88434028419
DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:Abstract. The COVID-19 pandemic forced authorities worldwide to implement m
oderate to severe restrictions in order to slow down or suppress the spread
of the disease. It has been observed in several countries that a significa
nt number of people fled a city or a region just before strict lockdown mea
sures were implemented. This behavior carries the risk of seeding a large n
umber of infections all at once in regions with otherwise small number of c
ases. In this work, we investigate the effect of fleeing on the size of an
epidemic outbreak in the region under lockdown, and also in the region of d
estination. We propose a mathematical model that is suitable to describe th
e spread of an infectious disease over multiple geographic regions. Our app
roach is flexible to characterize the transmission of different viruses. As
an example, we consider the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. Projection of diff
erent scenarios shows that (i) timely and stricter intervention could have
significantly lowered the number of cumulative cases in Italy, and (ii) fle
eing at the time of lockdown possibly played a minor role in the spread of
the disease in the country.
Zoom link: https://us02
web.zoom.us/j/88434028419?pwd=cm1DOWZURnZKUUNBYjYrdGpQQXkwQT09
&nbs
p;
DTSTAMP:20240329T100933Z
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Budapest:20210416T131500
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Budapest:20210416T141500
SEQUENCE:0
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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