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UID:7sl7pfs02hmgug60akn2nr8cfa@google.com
CATEGORIES:{lang hu}Differenciálegyenletek szeminárium{/lang}{lang en}Differential equations seminar{/lang}
SUMMARY:Saumen Barua (University of Szeged): A seasonal model to assess intervention strategies for preventing periodic recurrence of Lassa fever
LOCATION:Riesz Lecture Hall, 1st Floor, Bolyai Institute, Aradi Vértanúk tere 1., Sz
eged
DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:Abstract. Lassa haemorrhagic fever is listed in WHO’s Blueprint priority li
st of diseases and pathogens prioritized for research and development, affe
cting several hundreds of thousands of people each year. Lassa fever is spr
ead via infected Natal multimammate mice and also through human-to-human co
ntacts and it is a particular threat to pregnant women. Despite its importa
nce, relatively few mathematical models have been established for modelling
Lassa fever transmission up to now. We establish and study a new compartme
ntal model for Lassa fever transmission including asymptomatic carriers,
quarantine and periodic coefficients to model annual weather changes. We d
etermine parameter values providing the best fit to data from Nigerian stat
es Edo and Ondo from 2018–20. We perform uncertainty analysis and PRCC anal
ysis to assess the importance of different parameters and numerical simulat
ions to estimate the possible effects of control measures in eradicating th
e disease. The results suggest that the most important parameter which migh
t be subject of control measures is death rate of mice, while mouse-to-huma
n and human-to-human transmission rates also significantly influence the nu
mber of infected. However, decreasing the latter two parameters seems insuf
ficient to eradicate the disease, while a parallel application of decreasin
g transmission rates and increasing mouse death rate might be able to stop
the epidemic.
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Pass Code: 324834
DTSTAMP:20240329T021913Z
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Budapest:20210930T104500
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Budapest:20210930T121500
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